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  • Why Everyone Is Talking About Bigger Refunds

    Why Everyone Is Talking About Bigger Refunds

    IRS data shows average refunds are up, but that doesn’t mean everyone will see the same result.

    Key takeaways

    • Average tax refunds are trending higher this filing season and filers are expected to see up to $1,000 increase in refund this year. 
    • A higher national average doesn’t guarantee your refund will be bigger. Your outcome depends on your income, withholding, and credits.
    • Changes to income, withholding, and credits can all affect your final refund.

    The news is all abuzz about receiving bigger tax refunds.

    Refund headlines are everywhere this year. But there’s an important catch if you’re already mentally spending money you haven’t received yet.

    In general filers could see up to $1,000 increase in refunds or lower balance due this season related to the new tax law changes.

    Here’s what’s driving the buzz, what people often misunderstand about “bigger refunds,” and how to figure out what your own refund might look like before you file.

    Are tax refunds bigger this year?

    So far, yes, on average related to the new tax law changes. The IRS reports average refund figures based on returns processed to date, and those numbers change throughout the filing season as more people submit returns.

    That’s why bigger refunds this year aren’t guaranteed. Your refund ultimately depends on your own tax situation — including income, withholding, credits, and deductions.

    Why your refund might be bigger this year

    Refunds go up for a few common reasons, and they’re usually personal, not universal. For example:

    • Your withholding changed. If more tax was withheld from your paychecks, your refund could be larger, even if nothing else changed.
    • Your life changed. Marriage, a new baby, a home purchase, or childcare costs can shift your credits and deductions.
    • Your income mix changed. Side income, bonuses, or new investments can change what you owe or get back.

    Some taxpayers may also see differences tied to new provisions associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that the IRS has outlined in its guidance (for example, the car loan interest deduction, as well as deductions tied to tips and overtime for eligible filers).

    The important part: these changes only matter if they apply to you.

    Common misconceptions about ‘bigger refunds’

    A few ideas show up every year when refund headlines start circulating. Here’s what’s worth keeping in mind.

    A bigger refund isn’t always “extra money.”

    A refund is often a sign that you paid more tax during the year than you ultimately owed. If you got a very large refund and would rather have more money in each paycheck, you may want to review your withholding for next year.

    A bigger refund this year doesn’t mean a bigger refund next year.

    Refunds can change quickly if your income changes, credits phase in or out, withholding shifts, or tax rules change. One year’s refund isn’t a forecast.

    The number you expect isn’t always the number you receive.

    The IRS may adjust returns for errors or missing information, which can change the refund amount and affect timing. If that happens, you’ll typically receive a notice explaining the change.

    There are exceptions.

    Some people can still receive a refund even if they didn’t have taxes withheld or aren’t required to file. That’s often because of refundable credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit, which can result in a refund even if you don’t owe taxes.

    If you’re seeing refund headlines and thinking, “Okay, but what about me?” you’re asking the right question.Get clarity on your refund before you file using the TurboTax Tax Calculator.

  • How to Tell If Yours Is Genuine

    How to Tell If Yours Is Genuine

    A fake P800 letter is one of the most convincing frauds targeting UK taxpayers today. HMRC sends millions of genuine P800 tax calculations every year, and fraudsters exploit this by mimicking them closely.

    If you have received a P800 recently, knowing how to tell apart a fake P800 letter from the real thing could protect your bank account and personal details.

    A fake P800 letter typically arrives by email or text, though postal versions do exist. Either way, the goal is the same — to trick you into handing over bank details or clicking a link to a spoofed website.

    This guide explains what a genuine P800 looks like, lists the specific red flags that identify a fake P800 letter, and covers what to do if you suspect fraud.

    With HMRC reporting a significant rise in impersonation scams in recent years, understanding these signs has never been more important for PAYE workers and pensioners alike.

    What Is a Fake P800 Letter?

    A fake P800 letter is a fraudulent communication designed to look like an official HMRC tax calculation notice. Its purpose is to deceive you into sharing financial details or making a payment to criminals.

    HMRC genuinely issues P800 tax calculations to PAYE employees and pensioners at the end of each tax year. Fraudsters exploit this by sending fake versions during the same window, typically between June and November.

    The HMRC impersonation scam has grown significantly in recent years. Over 200,000 scam reports were made to HMRC in the tax year to January 2024 — a rise of 29% on the previous year.

    Not all fake P800 communications arrive by post. Many come by email, text message, or even automated phone call, each using slightly different tactics to extract your money or data.

    How to Tell If Your HMRC P800 Is Genuine

    The most reliable way to confirm an HMRC P800 is genuine is to log into your Personal Tax Account at gov.uk. If HMRC has issued a P800 for your records, it appears there.

    A genuine P800 arrives by post. It includes your full name, your National Insurance number, and a clear breakdown of your income and tax paid during the relevant tax year.

    What a Real P800 Contains

    The letter references your specific employer or pension provider by name. It shows the income figure HMRC holds on record, the tax paid under your PAYE code, and any difference owed to you or from you.

    If you are owed a refund, a genuine P800 may ask you to claim online via gov.uk. It does not embed a hyperlink for you to click directly from the letter.

    What a Genuine P800 Does Not Contain

    A real P800 does not ask you to call a premium-rate number. It does not contain a QR code linking to a payment page, and it does not request your full bank account details in writing.

    HMRC does not send P800 notices by email, text, or social media. Any digital message claiming to be a P800 tax calculation deserves immediate scepticism.

    Fake P800 Letter Red Flags: A Checklist

    Spotting a fake P800 letter early may prevent financial loss. Certain features appear consistently in fraudulent communications and are absent from genuine HMRC correspondence.

    Check for the following red flags when you receive any P800-related communication:

    • The message arrived by email, text, or social media rather than by post.
    • The sender address is not from an @hmrc.gov.uk domain — it may end in .com, .net, or include extra words.
    • You are directed to click a link and enter your sort code, account number, or card details to receive a refund.
    • The communication creates a deadline of 24 to 48 hours, suggesting your refund will be lost if you do not act immediately.
    • The letter or email contains spelling errors, inconsistent fonts, or an HMRC logo that looks slightly off.
    • A premium-rate telephone number is provided as the only contact route.

    A single one of these signs is enough to treat the communication as suspicious. You do not need multiple red flags before pausing and verifying.

    Why These Scams Are So Convincing

    Fraudsters invest considerable effort in making fake tax communications look authentic. They replicate HMRC branding, copy letter layouts, and time their messages to coincide with the genuine P800 mailing season.

    Some fraudulent letters arrive by post and include details such as your name, address, and even partial National Insurance digits. This personal data is often sourced from previous data breaches or phishing attacks.

    The urgency built into fake communications is deliberate. A message warning that your refund expires in 48 hours is designed to override careful thinking and prompt an immediate response.

    Deepfake audio and AI-generated voice calls impersonating HMRC have also been reported. These calls can sound remarkably official, making phone-based verification of the original letter even more important.

    P800 Tax Refund Scam: How the Fraud Actually Works

    A P800 tax refund scam typically follows a predictable sequence. Understanding each stage may help you spot where the manipulation begins.

    Stage One: Initial Contact

    You receive an email, text, or letter claiming HMRC has calculated an overpayment. The amount is usually plausible — often between £200 and £1,000 — to avoid arousing suspicion.

    The message creates a sense of entitlement and mild urgency. It feels like good news, which lowers your guard compared to a message demanding payment.

    Stage Two: The Fake Website

    You are directed to a website that mirrors the gov.uk design. The URL may be close to the real address but contains a subtle difference, such as an extra word or a different domain extension.

    Once on the fake site, you are asked to enter personal and financial details to ‘verify your identity’ before the refund can be processed. This is where the data theft occurs.

    Stage Three: Exploitation

    The details you have entered may be used immediately to access your bank account. Alternatively, they may be sold to other fraudsters or used in a follow-up scam weeks later.

    In some cases, a fake agent calls you after the initial contact, claiming to be from HMRC and offering to ‘process your refund’ directly over the phone.

    Common Mistakes That Make People Vulnerable

    Most people who fall victim to HMRC impersonation scams are not careless. They are caught out by specific patterns that fraudsters have refined over years of testing.

    Assuming personalisation means authenticity is a frequent error. A message that includes your name, employer, or partial National Insurance number feels more trustworthy — but fraudsters acquire this data routinely from leaks.

    Acting quickly under deadline pressure is another common vulnerability. The instinct to secure a refund before it expires is exactly the reaction a fake P800 letter is designed to trigger.

    Clicking the link before checking the URL is a third mistake. Even when an email looks official, hovering over or copying the link often reveals a completely unrelated web address.

    How to Verify an HMRC Letter Before Taking Any Action

    If you receive a P800 and are unsure whether it is genuine, there are straightforward steps you could take before responding in any way.

    Log into your Personal Tax Account at gov.uk by typing the address directly into your browser. This is the most reliable confirmation available — a genuine P800 issued to you may be visible there.

    You could also contact HMRC by telephone using the number listed on gov.uk — not any number printed in the letter. The general income tax enquiries line is the appropriate starting point for most queries.

    Forward suspicious emails to [email protected]. Report suspicious texts by forwarding them to 60599. Both routes feed into HMRC’s active fraud investigation process.

    If you have already clicked a link or entered financial details, contact your bank immediately and ask them to monitor your account. You could also report the incident to Action Fraud at actionfraud.police.uk.

    Fake P800 Letter by Post: What to Check on the Paper Itself

    Postal versions of a fake P800 letter require slightly different checks compared to digital messages. Physical details that are difficult or costly to forge are often the most reliable giveaways.

    Compare the print quality with any previous genuine HMRC letters you have received. Fraudulent postal letters sometimes show uneven printing, slight colour differences in the logo, or thinner paper stock.

    Check that any telephone number in the letter matches the numbers published on gov.uk. A number that cannot be found on the official site is a significant warning sign.

    Look at the postmark on the envelope. A letter claiming to come from HMRC but postmarked from an unexpected location or with a foreign postage mark deserves scrutiny.

    A genuine HMRC letter does not offer a cash reward for prompt action, and it does not include language designed to pressure you into responding within hours.

    Final Thoughts

    Knowing what a genuine P800 looks like — and recognising the specific signs of a fake P800 letter — is one of the most practical protections available to UK taxpayers.

    The core rule is simple: HMRC sends P800 notices by post and does not ask for bank details via a link.

    If anything about a P800 communication feels wrong, pause before acting. Log into gov.uk directly, contact HMRC on a verified number, and report anything suspicious.

    For more information on how a genuine P800 tax refund works, visit the HMRC P800 tax refund page on Tax Rebate Services.

    Fake P800 Letter Key Takeaways

    • HMRC sends genuine P800 tax calculations by post only — a P800 arriving by email, text, or social media is a strong sign of a fake P800 letter.
    • A real P800 includes your name, National Insurance number, and a detailed tax calculation; it does not contain a link asking for your bank details.
    • Red flags on a fake P800 include urgent deadlines, unfamiliar sender domains, premium-rate phone numbers, and website links that do not go to gov.uk.
    • You could verify any P800 by logging into your Personal Tax Account at gov.uk before taking any other action.
    • Report suspicious P800 communications to [email protected], forward scam texts to 60599, and contact Action Fraud if you have shared financial details.

    Fake P800 Tax Calculation FAQs

    Q1: How do I know if my P800 letter is a fake?

    Check whether the communication arrived by post rather than email or text — HMRC only sends genuine P800 notices by post. Log into your Personal Tax Account at gov.uk to confirm whether a P800 has been issued for your records. If the letter asks you to click a link and enter bank details, treat it as a fake P800 letter until verified.

    Q2: Does HMRC send P800 refund notices by email?

    No. HMRC does not send P800 tax calculations by email, text, or through social media. Any digital message claiming to be an HMRC P800 refund notice is likely to be a P800 tax refund scam. HMRC may send a text reminder after you have already claimed online, but it does not initiate refund contact digitally.

    Q3: What should I do if I clicked a link in a fake HMRC letter?

    Contact your bank immediately if you entered financial details on the linked site. Report the incident to Action Fraud at actionfraud.police.uk and forward the email to [email protected]. Change any passwords linked to accounts you accessed at the time, and consider checking your credit report in the following months.

    Q4: Can a fake P800 letter arrive by post rather than email?

    Yes, postal versions exist. A fraudulent postal letter may include your name and address but could show inconsistencies in print quality, logo colouring, or paper stock compared to genuine HMRC correspondence. Any telephone number in the letter should be cross-checked against gov.uk before calling.

    Q5: Where can I verify that HMRC has genuinely issued me a P800?

    Log into your Personal Tax Account at gov.uk by typing the address directly into your browser. If HMRC has issued a P800 for your tax records, it may be viewable there. You could also call HMRC on the income tax enquiries number listed on gov.uk — not any number printed in the letter itself.

  • Dan Zitting on Elevating Client Meetings

    Dan Zitting on Elevating Client Meetings

    Client meetings remain the heartbeat of the advisory relationship, but the expectations around them have never been higher. Advisors are under pressure to show up prepared, deliver deeply personalized guidance and answer increasingly complex questions on the spot, all while navigating a fragmented tech stack and rising client expectations shaped by artificial intelligence.

    In this episode of The WealthStack Podcast, host Shannon Rosic sits down with Nitrogen CEO Dan Zitting to unpack how technology is reshaping the before, during and after of client engagement. Fresh off Nitrogen’s Fearless Investing Summit, Zitting shares why the real opportunity in wealthtech isn’t replacing advisors with automation, but amplifying their expertise through connected workflows, compelling visuals and agentic AI.

    Key takeaways:

    • Why the client meeting is becoming the most important battleground for advisor value

    • How Nitrogen rebuilt its platform around its Nucleus AI engine to automate advisor workflows

    • Why tax conversations may spark the next generation of “catalyst moments” for clients

    • Why persuasive visuals can transform client understanding and engagement

    • How AI tools could help advisors manage larger client books while offering deeper planning insights

    Related:The WealthStack Podcast: Beyond the Model & Scaling Personalized Portfolios with Joshua Allen

    Resources:

    Connect with Shannon Rosic:

    Connect with Dan Zitting:

    About Our Guest:

    Nitrogen CEO Dan Zitting is a SaaS entrepreneur & operator, with a passion for software that enables a bold vision, especially one as bold as empowering the world to invest fearlessly. Prior to Nitrogen, Dan spent 13 years in enterprise SaaS for governance, risk management, and compliance (GRC). That journey started with founding Workpapers.com, the first true cloud software for audit & compliance management, which was acquired by Galvanize (then ACL) in late 2011. Then, leading Galvanize, Dan oversaw growth into the industry-recognized leader globally in GRC as recognized by analysts, investors, and (most importantly) customers alike. Galvanize was ultimately acquired by Diligent in a $1B transaction that created by far the world’s largest company in GRC software, a $650m+ revenue SaaS business serving 25,000 customers in 130+ countries. Dan’s lessons along the way have been published in Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Business Week, Reuters, The Street, CNBC, etc., as well as from the stage at hundreds of professional speaking events.

    Related:The WealthStack Podcast: Portfolio Personalization Without the Ops Headache with Wes Caywood

    Dan graduated with a BSBA in Information Systems and Finance from Colorado State University and received a Master of Accountancy from the University of Notre Dame. Dan believes his purpose is to challenge the planet’s organizations to maximize impact by operating with a conscience, and he’s found cloud software to be his best contribution to that personal mission.

  • New Tax Season Tips: Avoiding Penalties and Maximizing Deductions – Optima Tax Relief

    Mar 10, 2026

    Wondering what you need to know for this tax season? CEO David King and Chief Tax Officer & Lead Tax Attorney Philip Hwang explain why filing isn’t voluntary, how to avoid a Substitute for Return, and how to request an extension to prevent failure-to-file penalties.

    If You Need Tax Help, Contact Us Today for a Free Consultation 

    Categories:
    Tax Help Videos

  • Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, noted that solving climate change means undertaking a large number of seemingly small measures, like curbing emissions from automobiles, oil and gas wells, air travel, landfills, buildings and more. ‘Just because there are multiple contributors to a problem doesn’t mean we should excuse all but the top one,’ Dr. Oppenheimer said. ‘Just because a polluter’s emissions are decreasing doesn’t mean that they aren’t still far too high.’ “







    Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, noted that solving climate change means undertaking a large number of seemingly small measures, like curbing emissions from automobiles, oil and gas wells, air travel, landfills, buildings and more. ‘Just because there are multiple contributors to a problem doesn’t mean we should excuse all but the top one,’ Dr. Oppenheimer said. ‘Just because a polluter’s emissions are decreasing doesn’t mean that they aren’t still far too high.’ “








  • Google Finance Adds Prediction Market Data

    Google Finance Adds Prediction Market Data

    Google Finance now displays prediction market data alongside traditional market information. This integration from Kalshi and Polymarket represents the first mainstream placement of event contract data in a widely accessible financial platform.

    What Prediction Market Data Provides

    Prediction markets generate probabilities for specific events through participant trading. A contract at 65 cents implies a 65% probability. These markets cover Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation releases, GDP outcomes, and regulatory actions that drive portfolio positioning.

    The value lies in aggregating expectations of thousands of participants risking actual capital. According to PYMNTS coverage, the platform incorporates data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, and Polymarket. These probabilities update continuously as new information becomes available, providing insight into how the market interprets events in real time.

    Related:The Hidden Problem with Style Investing

    The Integration Advantage

    Having prediction market data alongside traditional market data creates a more complete intelligence picture without requiring separate accounts or subscriptions.

    A scenario where your investment committee believes the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points. You see prediction markets assign only 30% probability to that outcome, with 60% assigned to 25 basis points. Your team should investigate that difference to drive their own conclusions.

    CIOs can reference market-implied probabilities in client communications, framing internal forecasts against broader market expectations. Research teams benefit from identifying divergences as research catalysts.

    Practical Applications

    The natural language interface allows queries combining traditional and prediction market data. Portfolio managers can ask “How have technology stocks performed when prediction markets showed rising inflation expectations?” Research teams can analyze historical correlations between market-implied probabilities and asset performance.

    Scenario analysis becomes more rigorous when anchored to market-implied probabilities rather than arbitrary assumptions. Client conversations benefit when advisors can show what the market expects rather than offering personal speculation.

    Understanding the Limitations

    Prediction markets reflect limited liquidity compared to traditional markets. Concentrated positions can influence probabilities, especially for niche events. Market-implied probabilities represent betting odds, not statistical forecasts. A 65% probability means current market participants collectively assess the likelihood at 65% based on available information. These assessments can be wrong.

    Related:Triad Wealth CIO: We Want to Introduce More Cyclicality in Our Models

    According to PYMNTS, participation volumes remain relatively small compared with major exchanges. Price movements can be influenced by limited liquidity or concentrated bets. While prediction markets capture near-term sentiment effectively, they may overstate volatility during uncertainty.

    Volume matters when interpreting prediction market data. Kalshi markets with deep liquidity provide more reliable signals than thin markets on Polymarket with limited trading activity. Investment teams should evaluate market depth before incorporating probabilities into analysis.

    These markets should serve as supplementary intelligence rather than primary forecasting tools. Cross-reference prediction market probabilities with traditional analysis, derivatives market pricing, and other information sources.

    Strategic Context for Wealth Management Firms

    This development accelerates institutional awareness of prediction markets as legitimate information sources. Two years ago, prediction markets existed primarily in academic discussions. Today, they appear in Google Finance alongside stock quotes and bond yields. That transition from obscurity to mainstream visibility matters.

    Related:OnePoint BFG CIO: It’s Not Too Late to Invest in Commodities

    Clients increasingly encounter prediction market narratives through financial media. When CNBC discusses what prediction markets say about Federal Reserve decisions, advisors must be prepared to discuss what these markets mean and how they work.

    Wealth managers who understand how to interpret event contracts gain an information advantage. This knowledge allows them to contextualize client questions, evaluate media narratives, and incorporate an additional intelligence source into investment analysis.

    Early adopters develop institutional knowledge before the broader industry makes this transition. That knowledge includes understanding which prediction markets provide reliable signals, how to interpret probability shifts, and when divergences require investigation.

    Making Prediction Markets Actionable

    Wealth management firms should approach this in stages. First, research teams should become familiar with how prediction markets function and what data Google Finance provides. This requires no policy changes, just internal education.

    Second, incorporate market-implied probabilities into investment committee discussions as contextual information. When debating macroeconomic scenarios, reference what prediction markets expect. This adds an empirical benchmark to strategic conversations.

    Third, evaluate whether prediction market data might inform tactical positioning decisions. Some firms may find value in comparing internal forecasts against market expectations and adjusting exposure when divergences become extreme.

    The goal is not for firms to embrace prediction markets as primary investment tools. The goal is to understand how these markets change client behavior and information flow, and to equip advisors with knowledge required to respond. Advisors who understand this shift will remain relevant with clients who increasingly encounter these markets through mainstream channels.

    Firms that dismiss prediction markets as novelty risk falling behind in information gathering capabilities. The accessibility through Google Finance removes friction that previously limited institutional engagement. Investment teams can now incorporate event-based probability data into research workflows without building separate infrastructure or subscribing to specialized platforms. That accessibility changes what’s possible at zero marginal cost.

  • What to Do If You Owe Taxes This Year

    What to Do If You Owe Taxes This Year

    If you owe taxes when you file your return, pause and breathe. Then, make a plan.

    Key takeaways

    • Owing taxes one year doesn’t mean you did anything wrong.
    • If you owe more than expected, there are ways to handle it.
    • Filing on time and setting up a payment plan can help you avoid additional penalties.

    “You owe a couple thousand in taxes.”

    My CPA — who had undoubtedly delivered that same news countless times in the past — sounded nervous on the other end of the call.

    When I found out I owed money, my stomach dropped. This felt like a particularly harsh blow, given that I had always gotten money back in the past. However, after a few deep breaths and a helpful talk with the CPA, I figured out a plan that worked for me.

    If you owe money in taxes, here’s how to get through it. The good news is that owing taxes doesn’t mean you’re out of options.

    First: Figure out why you owe

    If you owe money in taxes this year, that usually means something changed with your income or your tax forms. Figuring out what changes caused you to owe money can help you avoid a similar situation in the future. Here are some possible reasons:

    • You earned money that you didn’t pay taxes on throughout the year.
    • You got a raise but didn’t update your tax withholding.
    • A new worker in the family (like a spouse who previously didn’t work and now does) pushed you into a higher tax rate that you didn’t account for.
    • You claimed fewer deductions.
    • You qualified for fewer credits.
    • You had a change in filing status (for example, Married Filing Jointly vs. Married Filing Separately).

    Next: Figure out a payment plan

    Finding out you owe taxes can feel overwhelming. The good news is you have options.

    1. Pay it off completely. If you have the money to do so (and it won’t completely drain your emergency savings), paying your tax debt in full right away is the best way to put the issue aside and move on.

    2. Set up a payment plan. You’re not the first person to owe taxes, and there are payment plan options. If you can’t pay everything at once, the IRS offers payment plans — sometimes spreading payments out over several months or even years.

    3. Settle your debt for less. In some cases, the IRS may allow you to settle your tax debt for less than the full amount.

    4. Pause collections. If you truly can’t pay your taxes because doing so would keep you from paying other essential bills, the IRS may temporarily pause collections. Keep in mind that this isn’t a get-out-of-jail-free card — your debt will eventually come due.

    Finally: Take action before the deadline

    TurboTax professionals can walk you through the different options to help you figure out which one is best for your individual needs. One thing that’s true for everyone: if you owe more than you expected in taxes this year, don’t procrastinate. 

    File your return with TurboTax and set up an IRS payment plan to avoid additional penalties and fees.

  • ‘Abundance’ swings but mostly misses

    ‘Abundance’ swings but mostly misses

    Since the dawn of the Bill Clinton era over 30 years ago, no journalist has more incisively illuminated the confines of U.S. liberal centrism than Daniel Lazare. In books like The Frozen Republic and The Velvet Coup as well as countless articles in Jacobin, New Left Review and other outlets, Dan has plumbed America’s deep-seated Constitutional paralysis and exposed the futility of combating carbon pollution without pricing fossil fuels’ climate damage into their market price. 

    The best-selling book Abundance was perfectly tailored for Dan’s scalpel, and his review last month for the Union of Radical Political Economists (URPE) does not disappoint. Rather than a polemic, Dan’s review gives Abundance its due — “In their effort to reduce environmental harms, greens have wound up hobbling production in such a way as to … undermine efforts to deal with the climate crisis in an effective and comprehensive way.” Yet as he points out, “The disease is intolerable, and so is the cure” of making polluters pay through carbon taxes.

    Dan’s review from URPE is reproduced below in its entirety, with permission. The graphics are ours. Dan currently publishes at Substack.

    Book Review: Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson, Abundance.

    Inside Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s rather pallid bestseller is a vigorous Marxist polemic trying to get out. Abundance begins with a quote from Aaron Bastani’s Fully Automated Luxury Communism (Verso, 2019) and ends with one from the Communist Manifesto: “The bourgeoisie, during its rule of scarce one hundred years, has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together.” Together, they serve to bookend the authors’ argument that in their effort to reduce environmental harms, greens have wound up hobbling production in such a way as to exacerbate inequality and homelessness and undermine efforts to deal with the climate crisis in an effective and comprehensive way.

    Dan’s books uncannily foretold today’s multiple crises.

    Despite protests from Robert Kuttner, co-founder of The American Prospect, and other outraged liberals, the argument carries weight. From a Marxist perspective, the reasons are clear. Liberal environmentalism is an ideology of just saying no, i.e. just say no to dangerous toxins in the water supply, to filling the atmosphere with noxious fumes, to scattering trash along highways and byways, and so forth. NIMBYism adds a further fillip that if you’re going to engage in such activities or do anything else that might disturb the environmental equilibrium, even if it’s for a good cause, don’t do it here. Since there is nothing that doesn’t disturb the environment in one way or another, the result is a stand-pat philosophy whose purpose is to preserve the status quo. Zeroing in on southern California, Klein and Thompson neatly sum up the prevailing ethos: “When do Angelenos want affordable housing? Now!  Where do they want it? Not here!” The problem is that anything resembling a positive program, a way of organizing production so that it doesn’t harm the environment and in fact may even improve it, is absent.

    The answer to the climate crisis is the polluter-pays principle.

    The reason for this is clear as well. The answer to the climate crisis, the environmental crisis, and all the rest is to require capitalist production to bear the full cost. If a gallon of gasoline generates amount of pollution and carbon emissions, not to mention expenditures for highway maintenance, noise abatement, and emergency services, then the simplest and most elegant solution is to incorporate the cost of x into the price of gas so that producers are forced to deal with the full consequences of their actions.

    This is what’s known as PPP – the polluter-pays principle. But it’s impractical, which is to say incompatible with capitalist production, because it would wipe out profits. What would happen to the US auto industry if society were to recognize that the true cost of gasoline is not $4 or $5 a gallon, but $15, $20, or more? What would the results be for the “drill, baby, drill” crowd in both Texas and the Middle East if structurally-induced fossil-fuel consumption were to cease? Tolerance of environmental harms is a form of subsidy since it requires the state to cover costs that producers generate. Society pays them, in effect, to pollute. The long-term consequences are proving fatal as the climate crisis accelerates. Yet the short-term consequences of de-subsidization would prove fatal to bourgeois liberalism.

    So bourgeois society dithers and dawdles, as Abundance describes. “In 2022, ninety countries and territories experienced often violent protests over the rising price of fuel,” Klein and Thompson recount. Subsidies must therefore continue. They quote a political scientist named Erik Voeten who notes that “people who bear the cost of climate policies increasingly flock to the far right.” So nothing can be done in terms of climate mitigation for fear of furthering rightwing polarization. The authors quote a pair of legal academics named J.B. Ruhl and James Salzman who note that property owners do not cotton to the prospect of oil pipelines or electric transmission lines running through their backyard. But “[g]uess what,” Ruhl and Salzman add, “they do not like the idea of wind turbines or solar panels in their backyard either.” Since they don’t like the problem or the solution, nothing can be done. The disease is intolerable, and so is the cure.

    Abundance is highly effective in depicting how this policy snarl plays out. “In much of San Francisco,” Klein and Thompson write, “you can’t walk twenty feet without seeing a multicolored sign declaring that Black Lives Matter, Kindness Is Everything, and No Human Being Is Illegal. Those signs sit in yards zoned for single families, in communities that organize against efforts to add the new homes that would bring those values closer to reality.” San Francisco’s black population has fallen steadily since 1970 due at least in part to restrictions that force poor people in general into longer and longer commutes, if not outright homelessness.

    The middle class is hypocritical, something that “progressives” would know if they ever read Flaubert, Sinclair Lewis, John Dos Passos, or Ring Lardner (which they don’t). California “is dominated by Democrats, but many of the people Democrats claim to care about most can’t afford to live there,” Abundance declares. Last year, “voters [who] were most exposed to the day-to-day realities of liberal governance” demonstrated their displeasure by casting ballots for the Republicans. “Nearly every county in California moved toward Trump, with Los Angeles County shifting eleven points toward the GOP.”

    Liberalism has sown the seeds of its own destruction. 

    It’s a case of liberalism sowing the seeds of its own destruction. Abundance is particularly scathing on California’s great misadventure with high-speed rail. This is the project that Governor Jerry Brown initiated in 1982 with visions of bullet trains whizzing back and forth between San Francisco and Los Angeles. After all, if Japan can do it, why not the United States? Fourteen years later, the state formed a high-speed rail authority, and in 2008 voters authorized $33 billion. That was more than a quarter of a century of doing zilch, but Californians were assured that the first segment would go on line by the year 2020. In 2009, Barack Obama offered a full-throated endorsement:

    “Imagine boarding a train in the center of a city. No racing to an airport and across a terminal, no delays, no sitting on the tarmac, no lost luggage, no taking off your shoes. Imagine whisking through towns at speeds over one hundred miles an hour, walking only a few steps to public transportation, and ending up just blocks from your destination. Imagine what a great project that would be to rebuild America.”

    Except that do-nothing-ism continued until the project finally collapsed. “Let’s be real,” Gavin Newsom announced in 2019. “The project, as currently planned, would cost too much and take too long. There’s been little oversight and not enough transparency. Right now, there simply isn’t a path to get from Sacramento to San Diego, let alone from San Francisco to LA. I wish there were.”

    An astonishing $33 billion had gone down the drain. But why? Klein and Thompson describe how the project immediately bogged down in innumerable negotiations over property rights. “Negotiating with courts, with funders, with business owners, with homeowners, with farm owners,” they write. “Those negotiations cost time, which costs money. Those negotiations lead to changes in the route or the build or the design, which costs money.” State officials relied on expensive consultants who made matters worse: “It was one of these consultants – WSP – that estimated the system would cost only $33 billion and take only twelve years to build. But WSP was joined by Project Finance Advisory, Cambridge Systematics, Arup, TYLin, HNTB, PGH Wong Engineering, Harris & Associates, Arcadis, STV, Sener, and Parsons Corporation.” The Los Angeles Times concluded that outsourcing “proved to be a foundational error in the project’s execution – a miscalculation that has resulted in the California High-Speed Rail Authority being overly reliant on a network of high-cost consultants who have consistently underestimated the difficulty of the task.”

    California officials who had no idea how to proceed relied on high-priced consultants who didn’t know either. It’s an example of a liberal polity that knows how to say no and nothing else. It knows what it shouldn’t do, but not what it should.

    Klein and Thompson deserve credit for bringing all this out. But Abundance suffers from numerous analytical shortcomings. The authors tiptoe around difficult political problems and take refuge in fatuous techno-optimism.  “[T]he only way for humanity to limit climate change while fighting poverty is to invent our way to clean energy that is plentiful and cheap and then spend enough to deploy it,” they assure their readers.  “…One of the most devilish challenges in energy is how to efficiently remove CO2 from the atmosphere. By 2050, the world will need to permanently remove 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the skies every year to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change.” They open with a sci-fi vision in which future Americans drink desalinated sea water, consume lab-grown chicken and beef, get packages delivered by flying drones, and dash from New York to London in just over two hours in supersonic jetliners using low-carbon “green synthetic fuels.”

    All of which is either puerile or misconceived. By itself, clean energy will do nothing to solve global warming unless counter-measures such as carbon taxes are instituted to inhibit fossil-fuel consumption. The answer to the climate crisis can’t be all carrot and no stick, but must include measures aimed at fostering conservation and energy efficiency. Carbon removal is a non-starter since it invariably requires more energy than it’s worth, while desalination is beside the point in a state like California in which there is so much waste that growers use 1,900 gallons of heavily-subsidized water to produce a pound of almonds despite a deepening drought. As for lab meat, it’s hard to imagine it being more energy efficient than raising chickens and rabbits the old-fashioned way on farms or in large-scale factories. It’s equally hard to imagine flying drones replacing delivery people on bikes in communities that are compact and car-free. Tech has its place, but real energy savings begin with such low-tech modes as walking and cycling.

    As for supersonic air transport, fuhgeddaboudit. Air France and British Airways retired the Concorde in 2003 not only because one had crashed in Gonesse, France, killing 113 people, but because it was a gas-guzzler that used 3.8 times as much fuel as a modern wide-body airliner while carrying substantially fewer people. Green synthetic fuels will do nothing to eliminate that disparity.

    Klein and Thompson are plainly on the side of more. But more of what, exactly? More CO2-spewing SUV’s?

    But there’s more. Not only is Abundance awash with meaningless techno-optimism, but it’s silent on the political issues that are the real barriers to progress. Take consumerism. Klein and Thompson are plainly on the side of more, as is any labor organizer fighting for higher wages. But more of what, exactly? More CO2-spewing SUV’s? More highways so immobilized by traffic that they turn into elongated parking lots? More strip malls and gated communities? The problem with more in a period of capitalist decay is that it often translates into less, which is to say less mobility, less attractive surroundings, and less freedom to bike, walk, or engage in other modest pleasures due to dangerous levels of traffic. In describing rail advocates engaged in painstaking negotiations over rights of way, the authors don’t consider whether car, highway, and energy subsidies are fostering a highly diffuse form of sprawl that crowds out high-density modes. America can have high-speed rail and the concentrated urban development it feeds into. Or it can have ultra-low-density development and the rising levels of congestion and fossil-fuel consumption it generates. But it can’t have both. It’s a conundrum that Klein and Thompson resolutely avoid confronting, no doubt because it would make Abundance less user-friendly.

    Then there’s the matter of class. Abundance is about middle-class consumers struggling to protect their way of life in ways that are increasingly counterproductive. But it makes no mention of the top one percent – really, the top 0.1 percent or even 0.01 – who are the real agents of destruction. Where are the oil barons who don’t care about the climate crisis as long as profits continue to grow? What about super-rich petro-sheiks – how did America wind up in alliance with such a motley crew? And what about the 40,000 US troops in and around the Persian Gulf? What are they doing there and whose interests are they serving? For anyone truly interested in American dysfunctionality, these are the places to start. Yet Klein and Thompson steer clear of such questions because they make people uncomfortable. And if there’s one thing we know about the publishing business, it’s that people don’t buy books that make them uncomfortable.

    Finally, there is no sense of America as a society in an acute political crisis. Since Abundance was released in March, it evidently went to press before Trump was elected and therefore can’t be held responsible for failing to anticipate the full nature of the breakdown that is now before us. Still, it’s not as if there weren’t plenty of warnings as gridlock intensified and politics descended into game playing and threats. Government was in decay, yet no one could think of a way out.

    Abundance reflects this growing pessimism, but never asks why. It quotes a University of Chicago economist named Chad Syverson on a construction-industry regulatory process that is complicated beyond reason. “There are a million veto points,” he complains. Yet there’s no sense that the problem involves not just economic regulation, but a legislative process that also contains a million veto points thanks to hundreds of congressional committees and subcommittees, outrageous filibuster rules, a “hold” system that allows individual senators to tie up legislation for months, and so forth. If Capitol Hill is in chaos, is it any surprise that the regulatory structure it gave rise to is in chaos too?

    Yet Klein and Thompson avert their eyes. Serious political analysis is beyond their scope. They complain about political paralysis in Los Angeles, but make no mention of the political fragmentation that is the real source of the difficulty. After all, LA is not a city as most people think of the term. Rather it’s a baroque agglomeration that consists of a city, a county, plus 87 other municipalities, 80 school districts, 51 police departments, 29 fire departments, and 142 special districts covering everything from sanitation to mosquito control. It’s an assemblage with one overriding goal: political stasis. Nothing gets done because the political structure won’t let it. It’s a form of institutionalized fragmentation designed to scatter concerted political action to the four winds before it can take flight. Yet not only do Klein and Thompson fail to mention that the problem is effectively unfixable – they fail to mention the problem at all. Instead, they dwell on side issues even though the effect is to distort the picture as a whole.

    There is a certain unity between political paralysis at the top and regulatory paralysis below, between gridlock on Capitol Hill and gridlock among thousands of local zoning boards and planning commissions. Both undermine democracy in any meaningful sense while giving corporate interests free rein. Together, they amount to an engraved invitation for a strong man to knock down barriers and overcome restraints. Today, that strong man is Donald Trump, and the way he’s going about it is dead certain to take a bad situation and make it many times worse. The result will be the opposite of abundance in every possible respect – in terms of democracy, equality, scientific advancement, and material progress. It’s a deepening descent that mindless techno-babble will do nothing to reverse.

  • Flourish Launches Mortgage Platform for Advisors

    Flourish Launches Mortgage Platform for Advisors

    Flourish, a technology platform serving registered investment advisors, perhaps best known for its cash management features, has launched Flourish Lending, a residential mortgage product designed to help independent advisors compete with banks and wirehouses that use mortgage rate incentives to attract clients.

    The platform operates as a digital-first mortgage broker, providing clients access to rates directly from capital markets and supporting refinancing, cash-out refinancing and new home purchase loans of up to $10 million for primary and investment properties.

    In 2025, Flourish acquired the AI-powered liability analytics startup Sora Finance as part of its efforts to build out lending services for clients.

    “For years, advisors have told us they lose assets to wirehouses and banks when clients need a mortgage,” said Max Lane, chief executive officer of Flourish.

    The solution offers advisors a co-branded lending experience with features such as proactive refinance alerts, a streamlined application process, and rapid closings.

    Related:AI-Powered Era Registers as RIA, Targets Mass Affluent

    “Lending has long been one of the biggest structural advantages banks and wirehouses hold over independent advisors,” said Dani Fava, chief strategy officer at Carson Group. “When clients need mortgages or refinancing, advisors often have limited ways to help, which can lead to assets leaving the advisory relationship.”

    Flourish Lending is currently licensed in over 20 states, covering more than half the U.S. population, and expects nationwide availability within 12 months.

    Flourish reports that it works with more than 1,100 RIAs managing over $2.6 trillion in assets.

    Subatomic Rolls Out AI Chief of Staff for RIAs

    Subatomic has launched Concierge, an agentic AI system that functions as a chief of staff directing specialized AI workers across a wealth management firm’s operations.

    Concierge operates as a firm-specific AI layer that manages multi-step workflows across connected systems, routing work to human and AI workers for tasks such as meeting prep, data synchronization, client follow-up and compliance documentation, without requiring human oversight at each handoff.

    The system allows advisors and staff to interact through chat, Slack, email or voice, operating within each firm’s environment with data remaining in their systems.

    Subatomic builds a unified data layer called Subatomic IQ before deploying the Concierge, connecting CRM platforms, custodial feeds, planning tools, document repositories and compliance systems.

    The Concierge directs five specialized AI workers: Advisor Intelligence, which synthesizes client profiles before conversations; Meeting Preparation, which collects client data and portfolio changes; Client Follow-Up, which drafts summaries and updates CRM systems; Data Operations, which synchronizes custodial and CRM data; and Documentation and Compliance Lens, which automates form completion and produces audit trails.

    Related:Goldman Sachs Invests $42.5M in GeoWealth

    At a $1.4 billion AUM RIA, the system helped reclaim more than 8,000 hours annually, delivering over $500,000 in operational value equivalent to four full-time employees in year one, according to Subatomic.

    Subatomic confirmed the deployment of its 50th AI worker across its client base, each customized to firm-specific standards.

    Nitrogen Earns ISO 42001 Certification for AI Governance

    Advisor technology platform Nitrogen has achieved ISO/IEC 42001 certification, the international standard for Artificial Intelligence Management Systems, becoming what the company believes is the first wealthtech company to earn the certification. 

    Created in 2023, the certification has been granted to only a handful of large providers, including IBM and Google Cloud’s AI services, for example, as well as a handful of smaller firms in the financial services space. 

    ISO/IEC 42001 provides requirements for how organizations govern, deploy and oversee AI systems. Certification is awarded following an independent third-party audit confirming that a company has implemented formal processes for AI governance, risk management, ethical safeguards and ongoing oversight.

    “AI is rapidly becoming foundational to financial advice technology, but trust and governance must come first,” said Dan Zitting, chief executive officer at Nitrogen. “ISO 42001 certification demonstrates that our AI systems are not only powerful but responsibly built, carefully governed, and continuously monitored. Advisors operate in a regulated world, and when compliance teams ask how our AI is managed, we can now provide independently audited proof.”

    The certification reinforces the governance framework behind Nucleus, Nitrogen’s AI-powered advisor empowerment engine embedded directly within individual client profiles. Rather than operating as a standalone chatbot, Nucleus acts as a task-execution assistant inside the Nitrogen platform, allowing advisors to translate brokerage statements into portfolios, turn tax documents into client deliverables, apply security screens with natural language prompts, translate meetings into notes, prepare retirement income maps and generate client reports for download, print or email delivery.

    Zocks Brings AI Assistant to Life Insurance Market

    Zocks, the AI assistant already familiar to financial advisors, has launched AI-automated operational and document intelligence capabilities for the life insurance market and is already in use exclusively at two of the three largest U.S. life insurance carriers.

    The platform captures and creates notes on household, financial and life details during discovery meetings, then automatically completes paperwork, including carrier applications, fact finders and client intake forms. According to the company documentation, any format is processed in less than 60 seconds and synced to applications and forms.

    “Life insurance professionals face a unique combination of high meeting volume, complex documentation requirements, and thin margins for error,” said Mark Gilbert, chief executive officer of Zocks. “The firms that win in this competitive market are using AI to remove friction at every step, from the first meeting to the issued policy to client retention.”

    Zocks automatically syncs client information from meetings and documents to customer relationship management systems, illustration and other planning tools. The platform extracts client details required for needs analysis, suitability, case design and administrative work, reducing underwriting delays and “Not In Good Order” cycles.

    The platform also automates meeting preparation, follow-up emails and client communications, identifies missing items, schedules exams, confirms beneficiaries, establishes delivery requirements, and sets up payments.

    WealthFeed Launches “Warm Introduction” Feature 

    Prospecting and lead-generation platform WealthFeed has launched its Warm Introduction feature set, designed to help advisors identify prospects connected through their existing networks within a database of more than 100 million profiles.

    The enhancement to WealthFeed’s Discover feature uses AI to layer network intelligence onto prospecting outreach, solving the time-consuming challenge of manually identifying second-degree connections across large prospect databases.

    “With WealthFeed, advisors can now ask, ‘Who do I know that could introduce me to high-opportunity prospects?’” said Sam Kendree, co-founder and president of WealthFeed.

    Advisors can now find prospects reachable through mutual connections, identify second-degree relationships layered on prospect data, and search their clients’ and connections’ networks for individuals they want to meet.

    The Warm Introduction feature is layered on top of WealthFeed’s Discover feature, which offers professional- and consumer-level data, net worth and income modeling, money-in-motion signals, including promotions and business sales, advanced filtering by net worth and job title, and validated contact information.

    WealthFeed combines prospect identification, enrichment, monitoring, marketing automation and CRM activation under a pay-as-you-go pricing model, with integrations available for Redtail, Salesforce, Wealthbox and Hubspot.

    The prospecting and lead generation space for advisors is becoming increasingly competitive, with several startups vying to introduce new AI-driven matching capabilities, including Cashmere, Catchlight, FINNY, Aidentified, and at the more enterprise end of the spectrum Datalign Advisory, among others.

  • I Owed the IRS. Here’s What I Learned About Payment Plans

    I Owed the IRS. Here’s What I Learned About Payment Plans

    Key takeaways

    • Owing taxes doesn’t mean you’re in trouble — the IRS offers payment plans that let you spread your balance out over time.
    • Filing on time matters, even if you can’t pay in full, because it can help you avoid additional penalties.
    • When you file with TurboTax, you can request an IRS payment plan directly during the filing process.

    I sat down to start my taxes when a thought popped into my head: What if I owe this year?

    I’d picked up a few side gigs and wasn’t setting anything aside for taxes. I started to worry: If it’s a big bill, how would I even handle it?

    It didn’t help that TikTok is full of worst-case stories about garnished wages and frozen accounts.

    But here’s what those clips don’t show: owing doesn’t mean you’re in a crisis. In fact, many taxpayers set up payment plans with the IRS every year.

    How to handle an unexpected IRS tax bill

    A tax bill can catch you off guard, especially if you’re used to getting a refund. But it’s pretty common — and there are options for paying taxes you owe if you can’t pay right away.

    Maybe your take-home pay went up, and you didn’t adjust your W-4. Or you picked up freelance work, received a 1099-K for side income, or got a bonus.

    It doesn’t mean you did something wrong, just that the math worked differently this year, and now you owe.

    In situations like this, you can:

    • Request an installment agreement from the IRS at the time of filing. 
    • Make monthly payments based on what you can afford.
    • Stay in good standing with the IRS as long as you meet their terms.

    Manageable monthly payments shift the feeling from “What am I going to do?” to “Okay, I can handle this.”

    Demystifying IRS payment options

    The IRS offers a few payment plans, but most people choose from two common options:

    Short-term payment plan

    This is a helpful option for people who just need a little more time. You have up to 180 days to pay your balance in full, with interest and penalties added. 

    Monthly installment agreement

    This is what most people mean by an IRS payment plan — monthly payments rather than a single lump sum. If you owe under $50,000, you can usually apply without submitting detailed financial forms. You choose a monthly amount that works for your budget, and approval is often quick.

    Filing on time can help no matter what

    Some people wait to file until they have enough money to pay their taxes. But filing and paying are two separate steps.

    When you file late, the IRS can add a separate “failure-to-file” charge. That fee is usually higher than the late-payment penalty. So even if you need more time to pay, filing on time keeps you compliant and can save you money.

    Make payments while you plan ahead

    Setting up a payment plan can bring relief. A monthly amount is something you can budget for instead of scrambling to cover your tax bill all at once.

    While you’re making those payments, you can also plan for next year:

    • Adjust your W-4 so the right amount of tax is withheld.
    • Set aside part of your side income for taxes as you earn it.
    • Use an estimated tax calculator to get a clearer sense of what you might owe.

    Handling this year’s tax balance while adjusting for next year helps you feel more in control and less stressed.

    How to file your taxes with a payment plan

    If you owe this year, you don’t have to figure out the next step alone. When you file with TurboTax, you can request an IRS installment plan right within the process.

    You can set up your IRS payment plan in minutes when you file with TurboTax.